This was posted as a comment on Indi's blog on the 31st of May 2007
I am a pessimist. I think we turned the corner at the last election, there is no way but down from here on.
Hope of a negotiated settlement grows more distant because:
1. The exit of moderates on both sides (Balasingham & Kadiragamar)
2. The basis of the existing CFA (recognition of territories controlled by each party) has changed - because the territories have changed, need to go back to the drawing board again if a realistic CFA is to come about.
3. The war seems to have taken a very personal turn. MR’s filial affections are well known, and so is his unquestioned support for his friends. All the incompetents who surround him (Sajin Vaas, Asantha De Mel, etc) are either friends who jhave helped him when he was a nobody or his family.
The two turning points in the war were the attack on Sarath Fonseka, (close buddy of Gota) and the attack on Gota. The initial campaign intensified only after the attempt on SF’s life in April last year, the attackon Gota brought about a further intnsification. As Arnie said in the Terminator movie “this time its personal”.
Any hope of a settlement must only come after exhaustion by both sides (govt runs out of money, tigers run out of cadres) After that stalemate emerges, then a settlement can be realistically explored (this is what the Norwegians have also said) BUT this takes political will plus a certain amount of competence. This regime lacks both.
I think the leaders have more interest in looting the treasury than in anything else, and they will happily do it as long as they can.
We can go the way of Kenya (lots of violent crime due to income disparities & poverty + rampant corruption) , Colombia (where various militias roamed the country kidnapping, extorting and fighting for turf) and any number of African countries.
We have to endure 12 years of MR (who will hang on by hook or more likely by crook). Then a power struggle, probably betwen Basil and Namal but which may include Gota as well. After that another 12 years of whoever, provided the other party decides to give way, if not a coup is possible (conditions are now right for this - an increasingly politicised military plus rampant corruption)
The JVP wants us to be like North Korea, The JHU wants us to be like Iran, the SLFP wants to take us back to the glorious days of 1956. What models the political leadership has.
WE are in for some interesting times old boy, make no mistake.
Indi's original post is here;