Sri Lanka's crisis will get worse, contingency planning for relief must start now

The country faces two crises - an economic crisis and a political crisis.

The government has lost its public legitimacy but the country’s system of presidentialism makes power sharing with opposition parties difficult resulting in a deadlock. Political dysfunction will delay a coherent response to the economic crisis. Structural reform is complicated by the many vested interests. Many politicians view reforms as a threat to their wealth and ambitions.

High food inflation, currency depreciation, production shortfalls and a collapsing economy mean many poor Sri Lankans face hunger. Higher global pries have made the problem acute. With the public finances in disarray there is limited scope for state assistance. The distribution of relief is hamstrung by the absence of a social registry. To avert a humanitarian crisis the country should work with the UN to structure a relief programme that can deliver basic necessities to people. Humanitarian aid for Sri Lanka will not solve the country’s fundamental problems, will help mitigate the impact on the poorest.

The Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) of the UN Secretariat is responsible for coordinating responses to emergencies. It does this through the Inter-Agency Standing Committee, whose members include the UN system entities most responsible for providing emergency relief.

Sri Lanka may be heading to what the OCHA calls a “slow-onset emergency” one that does not emerge from a single event but one that emerges gradually over time. In parallel to the work on the economy the Government should start talks with the OCHA to conduct a proper needs assessment to gauge the extent of the problem and to design a contingency plan that can be activated if the situation worsens.

The people are already suffering, a responsible government should be trying to prevent matters from getting any worse.