Reviewing positions with the benefit of hindsight

I spend quite a lot of my time analysing events, a process that sometimes ends with a prediction or forecast. Something else that I often do is to review some of my predictions or positions with the benefit of hindsight. I don't do it all the time, just whenever something catches my attention.

Hindsight is a great thing and spending some time contemplating one's previous positions or opinion can be very enlightening. Often it can reveal flaws in reasoning; biases or facts that should have been taken into account. Even when we find ourselves on the wrong side of history we can learn something from our mistakes. It is part of process of refining ones thinking and ideas; an essential part of learning. 

Less frequently, when one is proved right, there is a certain satisfaction that is derived, something that will drive one to be more forthcoming in one's opinions.

After years of rejecting the need for any inquiry, the Government has made an unexpected U-turn and announced its own international panel to establish if war crimes took place.

Following the (seemingly incredible) war victory five years ago many an educational institute or university held seminars and workshops on the subject of management lessons to be learnt from the war victory; a few examples are here, here, and here.

I don't know if the results of the seminars or workshops were published in full but five years on, may we revisit the question again?

What management lessons did we believe we learnt? Do these need to be reviewed further in the light of recent events ? Were there real lessons to be learnt or were these bodies simply trying to cash in on some cheap publicity?

On the bigger question of the economy, many expected a post war boom. There was a boom but it only lasted a couple of years before ending in a bust in 2012.  Despite the rosy statistics there is now no serious question that things have been in decline since then. What went wrong? More seriously where will it end?